Unemployment Worse than Stress Tests
Posted 4:40 AM

Government stress tests had an unemployment rate of 9.1% in May. Most analysts expect unemployment to hit 9.2% in May.

In other words... we're outpacing the "adverse scenario" stress tests.

If we pass 10.3% unemployment, then we will *exceed* the stress scenario.

With an additional 1% unemployment, we're talking about 10 billion more in write-downs on credit card debt and real-estate defaults, This will exceed what major banks than have in reserve... and the market has eaten its full in stock issuance and bond conversions, so where will the banks get the money from?

Answer: Expect another round of bailouts in the Fall... right about when the second phase of swine flu will hit.
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Cure for Chronic Arthritis ... But Not For You
Posted 6:19 PM

I just read an article where a $3000 stem-cell treatment cured chronic arthritis.

First, the patient's fat cells were sent to a lab. The stem cells were extracted, propagated, and sent back. The enriched solution of cells was injected into arthritic joints. The results happened fast... reduced swelling, no pain, etc.

In this story, prior to treatment, the patient couldn't even walk. But afterward, he could chase a ball, roll over and even fetch...

Dogs, cats and horses can get long-lasting arthritic relief with this inexpensive and safe procedure. The procedure is called "HSCT" (hemopoietic stem cell transplantation).

Looking at recent abstracts it's sort of a foregone assumption that the procedure works, and works well. Tests of HSCT have been done over and over.... as early as 1999. All the tests, even the older ones, seems to result in a large percentage of patients being symptom-free for long periods of time, ranging from 6 months to 2 years. You can read a history of research at the NIH website.

But even with all this research, the treatment isn't used on humans very often. No large-scale clinical trials of an inexpensive autologous HSCT treatment for non-life threatening RA is underway. Most experts believe it will never be tried. All the literature talks about using lots of drugs in conjunction with the treatment, and only doing the treatment on people who are going to die, etc. For most people, the solution is still pharmaceutical, and will probably stay that way....forever.

Why?

In 2003, the CDC estimated that $80 billion was spent on medical expenses related to arthritis. That's over 80 billion per year.

If all 8.6 million people with arthritis in the U.S. got a $3000 stem cell treatment, it would cost $25 billion. But that assumes there's no economy of scale. The price tag for large-scale treatment would easily be as low as $500. Something like the way LASIK is today. Lab culturing isn't that expensive. And it's very likely that the cure would last many years to come (the human patients from 2004 are still cured).

Unfortunately this would, effectively, bankrupt the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, leading to an 60-80 billion dollar shortfall per year. Over time, we're talking trillions of dollars of revenue losses.

So.... there is no way this is *ever* going to get approved in the U.S. Not even in Obama's "change lite" vision of America. IMO, no chance at all.
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Yahoo News is better than Google
Posted 6:04 PM

I've been noticing that at least one Yahoo offering is better than Google. Nothing can touch Google's search, or Gmail for that matter. But Yahoo's news feeds seem way more interesting and relevant. I looked once, and haven't looked back since.

Yahoo's finance pages are nicer too, esp for having after-hours/premarket, volume, moving average.

The FTC talks about Google having a monopoly, but I think their competitors are just a few AJAX scripts shy of beating them on many fronts.
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Why the big deal about same-sex marriage?
Posted 12:10 PM

I always thought that "civil unions" were the same and what was being argued about was some sort of semantics that truly was the purview of culture and not government. I mean, what's the real difference? It's something that never seems to be talked about in the news, or at least, it never passes my automatic sound-byte filter.

Anyway, since it's cropping up again in the news i did a search and read this very interesting and exacting article on about.com.

Apparently, the word "marriage" is a very legal term, and the words "civil union" essentially convey no rights whatsoever. In the Federal Defense of Marriage Act, they essentially throw out same-sex marriage, and ignore civil unions.

I honestly think that most same-sex couples would give up the word "marriage", in exchange for well-reasoned "federal civil unions". Well, some of them might. Certainly enough to back-burner the whole issue for a long time.

Obama's a bit boxed into a corner now, he should talk to leaders on both sides and find something, perhaps federal civil unions, before his hand is forced.
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Samarost-Style Games
Posted 7:25 AM

Samorost is a genre-defining classic "room escape" game, so much so that people often call other similar games "samorost-style games" instead.

Noakai loves Samorost, but I still haven't paid for Samorost-2, mostly because what he likes is *easy* ones, and I've heard the new one is harder.

My room escape bookmark list for Noakai. He's 4, so they are all easy.

• Samorost 1
  
• Rocketman
  
• Small Forest Story
  
• Castle
  
• Sangar Sabrina (HINT)
  
• Sabrina in North Pole (HINT)
  
• Sabrina on Fraser Island
  

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